Saturday, February 11, 2017

Cassandra Time

Many of us unwillingly moved into the brave new future. On the eve of the coming inauguration, we can at least play the guessing game while watching the world crumble around us. These predictions are actual as of 10 January 2017; perhaps I should strike them in red as they come true.

 U.S. Domestic Effects

  • Beginnings of federal political prosecution under Jeff Sessions tenure, with focus to neuter the louder opposition voices like John McCain or Evan McMullin.
  • Gun control debate subsiding as liberals feel compelled to arm in increasingly volatile political environment.
  • Massive social welfare program to be announced. Can come in many disguises but is a sure move to expect from an incumbent authoritarian. A populist move required to establish popular support.

Technology

  • Offline, physical attack on a major datacenter of a big-5 technology company on American soil is a possibility.
  • Seizing control of Facebook and greater social meida. Not clear how, but is likely to be top priority of the new administration. Social network circlejerks factions were a key for bringing Trump in the office with post-media, post-facts campaign. He is not going to squander this. Consider the seating order in his meeting with tech sector representatives: Facebook rep was next to his right after his VP. Seating order with autocrats is never accidental. Whatever plan Zuckerberg has for breaking the circlejerks on Facebook, he better do it quick.

 International

  • Mass nuclear proliferation as old alliances and unions falter. Polish nuclear program becomes an option; possibly in cooperation with Ukraine.
  • Dictatorships will thrive throughout the world. The wars will blossom. Kind of obvious but should mention this anyway.
  • Snowden is likely to be extradited by Russia in a Trump-bolstering move. This will establish better footing of his administration in the struggle with CIA and make a selling point for curbing sanctions imposed on Russia.
  • Belarus is either openly occupied by Russia or de-facto cedes independence under pressure. From then on, Suvalkai Isthmus becomes vulnerable to pincer movement between Kaliningrad and Hrodna, enabling potential attack on the three Baltic states.
  • EU and Schengen agreement disintegration seems exceeding likely; something that Stratfor/Friedman long been predicting and with George Soros reluctantly joining the assessment now. The only hope is the rise of a decisive political left as a reaction to American developments. The heard effect in European voting is remarkable, so the elections in France will set the trend.

Let me know if you think I missed anything.